Regina
Saskatoon
General Inquiries
How much does Saskatchewan export to the United States?
The United States of America is our biggest customer. In 2023, Saskatchewan shipped over half of our total exports to the U.S (about $27 billion). By contrast, 78% of total Canadian exports were shipped to the United States in 2023. Saskatchewan has been successful in diversifying our international markets and reducing our reliance on the U.S market. Saskatchewan’s exports into emerging markets such as China have doubled since 2013.
What does Saskatchewan export into the U.S.?
Our exports to the U.S. reflect the propulsive sectors of our economy. The most significant Saskatchewan export into the U.S. is oil at approximately $11.6B in 2023. Other major commodities and resources exported include potash, canola (seed, meal, and oil), livestock, uranium, and wheat. Significant manufactured goods shipped include steel, wood products, and farm machinery (seeders and planters). Click here for the top 25 Saskatchewan exports to the U.S.
What does Saskatchewan import from the U.S.?
In 2023, we received $12.7 billion in goods from the U.S. Major imports from the U.S. include farm machinery (combines), construction equipment, corn, plant protection products, and semi-trucks.
Which states receive the most of our exports?
Minnesota, Montana, Illinois, California and Oregon are the top five states for Saskatchewan exports. They receive about half of all we produce. Saskatchewan sources just under half of our total imports from Illinois, Texas, Iowa, Minnesota and North Dakota. Click here for a complete list of Saskatchewan exports and imports by state.
What about our trade with Mexico?
Canada shipped $8.9 billion in goods to Mexico in 2023 with approximately 11% of that ($962 million) originating from Saskatchewan – mostly in the form of canola products, wheat, malt, canary seed and pulses. Saskatchewan imported a variety of products from Mexico including children’s toys, trucks and truck tractors and casings for oil and gas drilling. The most significant food product brought in from Mexico was bell peppers. Total imports amounted to $416 million in 2023.
What is CUSMA/NAFTA?
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed in 1994 by Canada, Mexico, and the United States and created one of the largest trade blocs in the world by GDP. It’s purpose is to eliminate all tariff and non-tariff barriers of trade and investment between the parties. In September 2018, the United States, Mexico, and Canada reached an agreement to replace NAFTA with a revised USMCA/CUSMA/TMEC agreement which was ratified in March 2020. The Agreement included a mandatory review to take place in 2026. Specifically, the “review and term extension” clause established a 16-year life cycle that requires all three countries to sit down every six years to ensure all are still satisfied. If it runs out in 2026 without a consensus, it will trigger a “self-destruct mechanism”, ensuring the Agreement would expire 10 years later.
Before the mandated review, all three countries will go through elections that will lead to at least one new government in place, as Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is term limited. Both Mexico and the U.S. will go to the polls in 2024. Canada will have an election in or before 2025.
What are the specifics of the review clause?
The CUSMA/USMCA/TMEC review clause (article 34.7) contains wording that the agreement will terminate 16 years after the date of its entry force unless each party confirms that it wishes to continue the agreement for a new 16-year term. The parties are to confirm their ongoing support for the agreement at a “joint review” by the Free Trade Commission made up of Ministerial level government representatives from each party. The first join review it to take place on the 6th anniversary of entry into force – July 1, 2026.
Should the parties confirm in writing that they want to continue with the agreement, then it will be extended for another 16 years. Failure to extend the agreement during the first or subsequent joint reviews will lead to its termination on July 1, 2036.
How have we benefited from North American free trade?
Most economists and analysts agree that NAFTA/CUSMA has been economically beneficial for the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Between 1993 and 2023, exports between the three members have grown exponentially, surpassing $2 trillion in 2023. That increase in trade boosted economic growth, profits, and jobs for all three countries. The U.S. Chamber Commerce notes that 12 million jobs in America are supported by the increase in trade and Canada and Mexico are the top two export markets for U.S. SME’s.
It’s estimated that more than $5 billion of trade takes place every day between the U.S. and its CUSMA trading partners and the three countries have become increasingly integrated over the last 30+ years.
Lower tariffs have also reduced prices and increased choices for consumers.
Are there other U.S. trade issues we should be monitoring?
There are trade issues not directly covered by CUSMA that Saskatchewan needs to be concerned about – protectionist polices like Buy America, the Soft Wood Lumber Agreement, and Country of Origin Labelling (COOL).
What is the Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA)?
Most forests in Canada are provincially-owned, while in the U.S. they’re privately-owned. The U.S. has alleged that that allows Canadian producers to sell their lumber at a lower price, undercutting American producers in the process. The Americans say that amounts to a subsidy, a claim Canada has successfully fought at the World Trade Organization.
While we’ve been able to secure trade peace over lumber for periods of up to eight or 10 years, softwood lumber has largely remained a “managed trade” issue. The last SLA ended in October of 2015 and negotiations toward a new agreement did not produce a successful outcome. In November of 2016, the U.S. launched a countervailing duty and anti-dumping investigation against Canadian imports On April 24, 2017; the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary determination on subsidy and assessed preliminary countervailing duty rates of around 20%.
While most of Saskatchewan’s wood product exports to the U.S. are in Oriented Strand Board ($276 million in 2023) and not part of the SLA, softwood lumber is a significant business component of some of our lumber mills in Saskatchewan. In 2023, dimensional lumber shipped to the U.S. amounted to $102 million.
What are we doing to protect our interests? What should we be doing?
While trade negotiations are a federal responsibility, each province is providing input and the Government of Saskatchewan has developed an engagement strategy. Premier Scott Moe has already visited Washington D.C. and lobbied legislators on our behalf. Businesses and industry associations must also join the effort and communicate key messages in this document whenever and wherever they meet with their American partners.